Saturday
Bur dubai - flemington Race 2
Bur heads back to the races for his second run in Australia. He had a great pipe opener first up, in a race that was run awfully slow (3 lengths below standard). He was able to rattle home in the quickest last 1400, 1200, 1000, 800, 600 and 400 of the race, so the rise to 2000m should suit him perfectly. He enters this race at his true weight of 53kgs, which is considerably less than a horse like Revelare, who has to carry 59.5kgs and is well fancied in the market.
From a speed map perspective, I think the tempo will suit better with Thorin and Independent Road both being horses that go forward. Additionally, I think that Revelare will want to be positive from a slightly tricky gate. I think that if this race is run at a genuine tempo, it will allow Bur Dubai to build into his stride and hopefully finish off strongly.
Revelare is the obvious danger. I suspect that horse is a genuine Group level stayer, whereas Bur Dubai is probably a preparation away from that level. However, Bur Dubai will continue to improve with every run this preparation, and I expect him to run well tomorrow and be savaging the line again.
- Spencer's Selections:
- top 4
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