key insights
victoria derby key insights
With the Victoria Derby just around the corner, we thought it would be beneficial to highlight some key trends in the form over the last 20+ years. Whilst these aren’t the be-all-and-end-all, the insights tend to lead towards a horse or two in the race.
barrier
13 of the last 20 winners of the Derby have drawn a single digit barrier. More recently, 4 of the last 5 winners have drawn inside barrier 10.
sp profile
The average SP profile of the Victoria Derby winners since 2010 is $12.24. A relevant statistic from the last 15 years is that only 2 horses have won with an SP’d at a price less than $3, and 7 of the last 15 have SP’d at double figure odds.
key lead-up races
There are some key lead up races to the great race, with the Moonee Valley Vase, The Caulfield Classic, Spring Champion, Geelong Classic and even the Cox Plate (not this year). Of the last 20 editions, here is the breakdown of where the winners ran in the race before the Derby. Obviously, with the programming, horses are able to run in a few of the selected races below.
- Listed Hill Smith Stakes 1800m – Goldrush Guru (2024)
- Group 2 Caulfield Classic – Riff Rocket (2023), Warning (2019), Extra Brut (2018), Polanski (2013), Sangster (2011)
- Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes – Manzoice (2022), Ace High (2017), Monaco Consul (2009)
- Group 1 Caulfield Guineas – Hitotsu (2021)
- Group 2 MV Vase – Johnny Get Angry (2020), Prized Icon (2016), Tarzino (2015), Lion Tamer (2010), Kibbutz (2007), Efficient (2006), Benicio (2005)
- Listed Geelong Classic – Preferment (2014), Rebel Raider (2008)
- BM72 – Fiveandahalfstar (2012)
breeding & make up
American Pharoah has sired the last two winners of the Victoria Derby (Goldrush Guru and Riff Rocket). Please see below a breakdown of Australian vs New Zealand bred horses in the Derby since 2000:
Australia: 14 winners
(Goldrush Guru 2024, Riff Rocket 2023, Manzoice 2022, Hitotsu 2021, Warning 2019, Extra Brut 2018, Ace High 2017, Prized Icon 2016, Fiveandahalfstar 2012, Polanski 2013, Rebel Raider 2008, Benicio 2005, Plastered 2004, Elvstroem 2003, Helenus 2002)
New Zealand: 10 winners
(Johnny Get Angry 2020, Tarzino 2015, Preferment 2014, Sangster 2011, Lion Tamer 2010, Monaco Consul 2009, Kibbutz 2007, Efficient 2006, Amalfi 2001)
Summary: Australian bred horses have provided 58% of the winners since 2000, and New Zealand 42%.
3 of the last 4 Derby winners have been colts rather than geldings.
trainer stats
Chris Waller has trained 2 of the last 3 Derby winners, but since then, there has been a relatively even spread of trainers that have won over the last 20 years.
Raced as a 2yo
Since 2000, 88% of horses that have won the Derby have at least had a race as a 2 year old.
