What an incredible weekend of results. Willydoit has conquered Group 1 Success with a dominant 2.3 length win in the New Zealand Derby. He now joins the likes of Bonecrusher, Mongolian Khan and Orchestral as winners of the race, and we cannot wait to see what he can do in Australia. Additionally, who can forget Sneaky Sunrise. She ran super in a very fast run Kewney Stakes, and she is closing in on that illustrious stakes win.
Willydoit - New Zealand Derby Post-Race Analysis - 1st
What an incredible performance. The race is absolutely fascinating to unpack and there were a number of factors that ultimately led to the dominant display. It was well documented before the race that a decision was made for Willydoit to be ridden more forward, especially given how the Avondale Guineas turned out.
Michael Dee was incredibly bold with his early speed, which resulted in Willydoit being posted 3 wide with minimal cover after the first turn. Being a Group 1, the injection of early speed was inevitable, with horses such as Mustang Morgan (blinkers first time) and Tuxedo (wide barrier) both deciding to roll forward, when previous races indicated a more neutral position for those two key chances. Whilst we did expect Willydoit to be forward in the race, I’m not sure we expected him to be sitting within the first 2 horses for the majority of the race.
Additionally, Willydoit faced considerable pressure for at least the first 1200m of the race, with Grey Area wanting to push forward on Willydoit’s outside, as well as Amazing Fluke vying to be prominent aswell. This, in comparison to the Avondale Guineas, posed a completely different set up of the race. Unlike the Guineas, the Derby was setting up exactly the way we wanted it; a true staying test. We mentioned in the pre race assessment that there were only two horses that were bred to see out the trip, and they inevitably finished 1st and 2nd, so a high-pressure contest was absolutely ideal.
Approaching the 800m, the field of 16 began to bunch, indicating that the swoopers were in a prominent position to be featured in the finish. Horses who sat in a forward position including Amazing Fluke and Grey Area, couldn’t see the race off, whereas horses that were positioned midfield or worse (Thedoctoroflove and Golden Century) began to present as the likely suitors of Willydoit.
With all that being said, the pressure did not phase Willydoit, who kicked clear approaching the corner and showed incredible fight over the last 350m to fend off rivals and come away with a 2.3 length win. The race may not have been set for on-speed horses (which just adds more merit), but Willydoit isn’t just a horse. He proved on Saturday that he is a deadset stayer of Group 1 level.
Sneaky Sunrise - Kewney Stakes Post-Race Analysis - 3rd
What a great test for Sneaky Sunrise on Saturday. She came up against a number of Group 1 winners in the Kewney Stakes, and was so brave in defeat, being beaten by 4 lengths to Treasurethe Moment, who is arguably the best 3yo filly in the country at the moment.
There was a large injection of early speed, with Too Darn Lizzie and London’s Image setting a strong tempo from the start. This was heavily reflected in the sectionals, where they ran 10.92 lengths quicker than standard time to the 800m. The race at that point was setting up for horses who were positioned just off the speed, which was exactly where Sneaky Sunrise was.
Sneaky Sunrise, approaching the home straight, started to be niggled at from Daniel Stackhouse. I attributed this to the fact that she was only 2nd up off a considerable break, and the strong tempo set probably just found her out a little bit in the home straight. Therefore, she didn’t show as much of a turn of foot as we know she has. Treasurethe Moment in comparison, was travelling beautifully, and was under a tight hold up until the 400m, and then exploded to dominate the opposition and prove why she should be one of the favoured runners for the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes. Too Darn Lizzie was incredibly brave in 2nd, settling on speed in such a fast run race, yet still sticking on to run 2nd and put 1.75 lengths on Sneaky Sunrise.
Sneaky was very game in defeat. She didn’t necessarily appreciate the strong speed, but still managed to fight off Group 1 winning miler, Another Prophet, to finish 3rd and prove that she can compete with some of the top line 3yo fillies in Australia. She is ever so close to getting that Stakes win she deserves, but the Hayes camp may need to be tactical with where they place her to avoid some of those stars.
