MyRacehorse

1. Willydoit (12) - Masa Hashizume

Why he can win?
- Willydoit is clearly the class galloper in the field. He has won his last two starts by 2.8 lengths and 2.5 lengths respectively, and arguably those runs were still over slightly unsuitable trips. The 2nd horse two starts ago, Tuxedo, has subsequently won the Waikato Guineas over 2000m in convincing fashion.
- His rating of 75 sits 5 points higher than the 2nd highest rated horse (bourbon Proof), yet he gets a very good weight set up with the race at Set weights. Finally, Tarzino’s are bred to run out trips further than 2000m, so I have no doubt that he will relish the rise in distance.
Why he can’t win?
- Barrier 12 for Willydoit means that Masa will have to be tactical where he places the horse in running. With some favoured runners drawn inside of him, luck in running is paramount on Saturday and misfortune could see him potentially be defeated. It’s only about 200-300m until the first turn at Ellerslie from the 2100m start, so it will be very interesting to see where he maps.

2. Bourbon Proof (13) - Michael McNab

Why can he win?
- Bourbon Proof comes to the Avondale Guineas hard fit after a gutsy placing behind Tuxedo in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m. This horse has basically been up since October, so the rise to 2100m will be no issue. Bourbon Proof was 3 lengths off Tuxedo on this occasion, and 3rd in the race was a mere 5 lengths from Bourbon Proof, showing his class and ability to stay on at 2000m.
Why he can’t win?
- From a direct form reference standpoint, he was 3.5 lengths off Tuxedo last start, who was beaten by Willydoit by 3 lengths, albeit over 1600m. I’m wondering whether Bourbon Proof has the capacity to improve again, especially given how long he has been in work for. He also draws sticky in barrier 13, making it likely that he will have to go back and find a position, with the aim of running on late.

3. Oceana Dream (14) - George Rooke

Why can he win?
- He let down beautifully to win his 2nd career start over 1600m, albeit in BM65 grade. He savaged the line really well. The start prior, he was a dominant winner of 1400m, which has seen two horses come out and subsequently win from that race. Winning form is always good form, and he looks to be progressing in the right direction.
Why he can’t win?
- He goes from 1600m to 2100m, after only having one other start prior to the mile race, which concerns me a little bit. He also would need to improve again significantly to compete at stakes level. Drawn barrier 14, means that he will likely be in the back half of the field, and I question his ability to give a few of these horses a headstart.

4. Suit Yourself (15) - Sam Spratt

Why can he win?
- Has some genuine Group 1 form around him. 2 starts ago he was 4.5 lengths off Savaglee over an unsuitable 1400m. He was then outgunned against Willydoit at Ellerslie over 1600m, but probably didn’t get the tempo he wanted (they went quick!). If he can get a slower tempo, then he could bob up and run a good race.
Why he can’t win?
- Would need to turn the tables on Willydoit, who he was 4.3 lengths from last start. He has also drawn terribly in barrier 15, so would need to rely on luck in running to get his chance at them.

5. Kiwi Skyhawk (1) - Matthew Cartwright

Why can he win?
- Was last seen in the Karakka Millions race over 1600m where he was beaten 3.5 lengths but was hitting the line strongly. He was also in the most inferior part of the track in the straight (along the rail) and had to shift lanes in order to get clear running. If I can be forgiving of that run, I see him as a chance. He could get a very economical run in transit from barrier 1 as well.
Why he can’t win?
- He is only 2nd up from an 11 week break and jumps sharply in trip from 1600m to 2100m. He’s not as further along in the prep as key rivals here, which could see him found out late.

6. Mustang Morgan (5) - Warren Kennedy

Why can he win?
- Mustang Morgan was a winner of 2100m 2 starts ago, and was against a number of key rivals that he meets again here, such as Golden Century, who was 2nd on that occasion. He then went back in distance to 1600m, where he was beaten by Oceana Dream. If that run is taken as a bit of a fitness run, I can see him being ready to go for this. His run at 2100m two starts ago provides him with a strong fitness base to stay out this trip, whereas other horses are jumping sharply in trip.
Why he can’t win?
- His rating of 67 means that he would have to improve a number of lengths on his current peak in order to compete with some of the higher rated horses. If the tempo is slow, I question his ability to show a sharp enough turn of foot to win here.

7. Amazing Fluke (10) - Kevin Stott

Why can he win?
- He is the likely leader of the race, and did a fair bit of work last start in the lead against Tuxedo and Bourbon Proof last start. That race was dominated by swoopers, and he was one of the only on speed runners to stay on, which adds merit to his performance. If he can get a soft lead here with no tempo, he could sneak away with it.
Why he can’t win?
- Was well beaten by Bourbon Proof last start, and would need to improve again to turn the tables. Barrier 10 for a horse that goes forward is a little bit sticky, as he’ll have to cross 9 horses inside him quickly, given the way that the Ellerslie track is set up from the 2100m start.

8. Golden Century (7) - Ryan Elliot

Why can he win?
- His last two starts have been over 2000m+, so he comes to the Avondale Guineas at peak fitness for another go at 2100m. He’s had only 1 run at Ellerslie, and it was over this trip, which can provide the horse with some familiarity. He was 4th last start to Tuxedo, which is the right formline for this race. He has drawn well and should get an economical run in transit.
Why he can’t win?
- In his last two starts he has been beaten by Mustang Morgan and Bourbon Proof, who are key rivals in this race. Whilst he comes from the right form references, he was still over 8 lengths behind Tuxedo last start, meaning that he would have to improve lengths to compete with the better horses here.

Support Willydoit in style this Saturday!

9. Ridefromtheashes (2) - Vinnie Colgan

Why can he win?
- Another horse that is likely to go forward and be competitive up on speed. He was game in defeat last start against Oceana Dream, where he set a strong tempo for the race and stuck on to be beaten in a photo. He has been up for a long time so he should be fit enough to see out the 2100m at his first go. He’s drawn to get into a really nice position throughout the run.
Why he can’t win?
- He was given a perfect ride to win last start and was beaten by Oceana Dream, who is a key rival here. His rating of 65 is a mere 10 rating points behind Willydoit, meaning that he would have to improve at least 5 lengths to be capable here.

10. Skippers Canyon (8) - John Allen

Why can he win?
- He comes here off a slightly different formline which is interesting. He has had 3 straight runs over 2100m and all have been positive. His win 2 starts ago was dominant, coming away with a 5L margin on rivals there. If you forgive his last start (barrier 17 and snagged back to 13th in running) and go off his run prior, he can definitely win.
Why he can’t win?
- I question whether the current formline that he is coming from is as strong as key rivals here. If you go back to November, he has some form around Tuxedo, but Tuxedo was in a different league to him there. He’s also had no wins from 3 starts on good tracks, and never seen Ellerslie before, which all provide reasonable unknowns for me to have a reason for him not winning.

11. Thedoctoroflove (4) - Daniel Moor

Why can he win?
- Comes here from his last run at Sandown, where he finished 6th but was ridden very negatively (sat last for the majority of the event). He had the quickest last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the race on that occasion. The start before he was super impressive, letting down from the back to win at Flemington. 1st and 2nd gapped the field that day. If he can get tempo to suit, he probably has the quickest turn of foot in the race to win.
Why can’t he win?
- Travels from Australia to New Zealand for this, so the New Zealand surroundings would be a bit unfamiliar for the horse. The theme of this horse’s racing pattern provides a “low percentage play”; He’s a horse that likes to get back and run on, therefore he needs tempo to suit. In a case where I think the Tempo will be quite fast, he will naturally be giving a lot of horses a headstart.

12. Hakkinen (6) - Rory Hutchings

Why can he win?
- Very lightly raced gelding who stepped up to 2100m for the first time last start and performed well. He was 1600m to 2100m that time, so the added fitness would definitely be beneficial. The start prior he was a dominant winner over a mile, and a subsequent winner has come out of that race. He definitely has upside and if he improves again, he can win.
Why can’t he win?
- Another horse that was beaten by Mustang Morgan last start, and arguably had no excuses in defeat. Whilst he has upside, he would need to go to a complete new level to win here.

13. Interplanetary (16) - Joe Doyle

Why can he win?
- He comes to this race hard fit after having 4 runs over 2000m since November, albeit in a slightly weaker grade. Should the race become a complete and utter staying test, I can see him grinding out his opposition.
Why can’t he win?
- Lacks the class of the other runners in the field and has been well beaten by key rivals in his last two starts. Drawn poorly as well.

14. Prochester (9) - Lily Sutherland

Why can he win?
- He was a nice 1.3 length winner two starts ago over 2200m, albeit in Maiden grade. He then went up against Tuxedo and was outclassed but he is another horse that has had multiple runs over 2000m leading into this. If it becomes a staying test, look out.
Why can’t he win?
- A rating of 63 means that he is one of the lowest rated horses in the race, meaning that he would have to go to a new peak to compete here. He was beaten 11 lengths last start by Tuxedo with limited excuses, so off that, I couldn’t have him here.

15. Hinekaha (11) - Craig Grylls

Why can she win?
- She was super impressive last start winning over 1800m against the girls in the Oaks Prelude. There were some class runners in that field and she won well. 2 starts ago, she was 1.5 lengths off Checkmate, which represents good form for this race to be competitive. She should be almost at peak fitness off her 4 runs this campaign and should relish the rise to 2100m.
Why she can’t win?
- She competes against the boys for the first time, which can always be interesting. She’s also drawn a little sticky, so it’s unknown as to where she will map here.

16. Ayteem (3) - Courtney Barnes

Why can he win?
- He’s drawn to receive every possible chance in barrier 3. His last two starts have been good without threatening, and a race like this would be a suitable enough Grand Final, where other horses are using this for the Derby.
Why can’t he win?
- Lacks the class that the rest of the field has and would need to go to another level to win.