MyRacehorse

#1 THEDOCTOROFLOVE (12)

The first cab off the ranks for the NZ derby is none other than Avondale Guineas winner The Doctor of Love. Daniel Moor is booked to ride and will jump from barrier 12. What a ride from Daniel Moor in the Avondale Guineas, he was patient during the middle stages of the race, sitting 5th in the field, before letting down on the straight to storm past the leaders. Obviously, it was a very slow run race, which benefited him immensely. He ran the 3rd quickest last 600m of the Avondale Guineas in a 34.02, but again, was entitled to rattle home quickly given the sit sprint and the fact that he settled close to the speed. I envisage that he will run out a strong 2400m, given that he’s now had 3 starts at 2000m+, albeit from a slower last start. His two starts prior the times were relatively quick, but on quick days as well. I think he has to be respected as a key player on Saturday.

#2 TUXEDO (16)

Tuxedo will once again match up with Willydoit, this time in a Group 1. He’s drawn the carpark, jumping from barrier 16, with Joe Doyle booked to ride. Tuxedo has had a different preparation to many horses in this race, with trainers Shaune Ritchie and Colm Murray opting out of running him in the Avondale Guineas and going into the derby cold after a 1 month break. It’s interesting to have no lead up between the Waikato Guineas and the Derby. I think it’s probably reasonable to suggest that he’ll be ridden quite conservatively, however, it becomes a bit of a map nightmare for him from barrier 16, because he could find himself too far back in a race that I think will string out. On the flip side, he could go forward and then the question will be raised on whether he can run out a derby. As you saw in our Avondale Guineas preview, a large majority of horses in the field have form in behind Tuxedo, and with a last start 3.5 length win over Bourbon Proof in the Waikato Guineas, who’s since run 2nd in the Avondale Guineas, he is another key contender.

#3 BOURBON PROOF (3)

Bourbon Proof was the runner-up of the Avondale Guineas, and he had it all his way in the race. Michael McNab has the ride and will jump from barrier 3. As mentioned, we could almost guarantee that he will roll forward from that gate and try to control the race just as he did in the Guineas. I certainly don’t think he’ll be able to control the race to the extent of the Avondale Guineas, despite the fact that he meets the same speed influencers here again, but this is a Group 1 now and I don’t think the field will let this tempo be slow. From barrier 3 he will definitely be positive and look to replicate the Guineas run, however, I have serious doubts over this horse’s ability to run a strong 2400m. Despite having all favours last start, he ran the 12th fastest last 600m. Additionally, his breeding suggests that he won’t run it out either, being out of an Exceed and Excel mare. So there are some questions marks raised and I’m happy enough to leave him out of my selections this time in, despite placing in the Avondale Guineas.

#4 Willydoit (14)

Willydoit comes to the NZ Derby after a 10th placed run in the Avondale Guineas. Happy to be completely forgiving of that run, given that he settled basically in the last 4 runners throughout the race, and was off a slow tempo. He will jump from barrier 14 and gets the engagement of Mick Dee in the saddle, who we suspect to be positive from the wide draw. He was one of only two horses to break 34 seconds for the last 600m in the Avondale Guineas, despite having no favours. Being bred by Tarzino gives me no doubt that the 2400m will be beneficial for him. If you pen his Avondale Guineas run, he has that scalp over Tuxedo, who has beaten the majority of horses in this field. I have him as a key winning hope with even luck and a strong tempo.

#5 Oceana Dream (1)

In my opinion, Oceana Dream was the best horse in the Avondale Guineas, and the sectionals back that up. In a race that was disgustingly slow, he was able to crawl back from off of midfield to power home and secure a 3rd place. Oceana Dream had the last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the race, I think he will find it difficult to stay out the 2400m unless it is a slow run race with zero tempo. Another knock I have for him is that he will jump from barrier 1 and doesn’t have too much gate speed. The barrier makes it interesting, but as Shaun mentioned on The Yarn, there is still a fair bit of time and distance before that first corner for George Rooke to find a nice position. He was certainly the horse to follow out of the Guineas given the way he finished off, and from a midfield position and having to shift a few lanes to get clear running, which adds more merit. He is a horse similar to Thedoctorlove, in that he needs a very slow tempo to be able to show his turn of foot in a sit sprint. He’s out of a redoute’s choice mare, which doesn’t exactly scream 2400m to me, but definitely a good chance in the race.

#6 Hakkinen (2)

Hakkinen takes his place in barrier 2 for the powerhouse Te Akau with one of Australia’s best riders in Blake Shinn booked to ride. He had an easy time alongside Bourbon Proof to lead the Avondale Guineas, where he held on for 4th in what was ultimately a sit and sprint. We could see the same thing happen on Saturday as Blake will undoubtedly roll forward with Bourbon Proof on his outside. I’m predicting that he won’t lead, but will roll forward. He had every chance to lead throughout the Avondale Guineas from a good draw, but decided to let Bourbon Proof and Amazing Fluke take up the running. I do think he’ll be positive and he should have the fitness to see out the trip with two straight runs over 2100m. He was able to turn the tables on both Mustang Morgan and Golden Century in the Avondale Guineas, and I think that the booking of Blake Shinn makes him a genuine contender

#7 Kiwi Skyhawk (7)

Kiwi Skyhawk, ran 7th in the Avondale Guineas after jumping from barrier 1. This time, he’ll jump from barrier 7 and have Matt Cartwright on the saddle. I think barrier 7 will suit this horse, as it will allow him to roll forward and find a position off the rail in likely the 3rd pairing. He came home strongly and hit the line well, however, had plenty of traffic to deal with. He’s a nice horse but he’s only posted 1 win from his 8 career starts and I doubt he will add to his tally this Saturday. I will say that he was probably a little bit crowded for room last start along the rail, so happy to say that he can improve again, however, after doing no work throughout the run, I’m a bit concerned at how easy The Doctoroflove and Oceana Dream got away from him over the 2100, therefore I can’t have him.

#8 Mustang Morgan (10)

Mustang Morgan, jumping from barrier 10 with Craig Grylis booked to ride. I thought he ran on well in the guineas, but I don’t think he’s good enough to pose a threat on Saturday. I thought he represented some value in the Avondale Guineas, having come across a number of key rivals in that race and beaten them, however it’s a bit of a different setup here with horses such as Golden Century and Hakkinen turning the tables on him. I’m probably not inclined to say he was unlucky last start, whilst he had nowhere to go in front of him along the rail, the group of horses finishing in front of him kicked away from him with 100m to go. I probably have a number of other runners ahead of him now but he does get the blinkers on so there’s some intent there and he may be one that goes forward as a result.

Support Willydoit in style this Saturday!

#9 Amazing Fluke (9)

Amazing Fluke is the next horse up, jumping from barrier 9 and will likely roll forward with Kevin Stott as the rider. I doubt this horse will be able to run out the 2400m, after struggling to finish the 2100m where he led with zero pressure. Hopefully he tries to roll forward from his barrier and inject some speed into the race. He ran a 34.73 last 600m which was the 11th fastest of the race, which is certainly nothing to ride home about. If he were to get another slow tempo, I can see him being a chance to finish top 5 or 6, however, I don’t think he will get that Saturday and am happy to leave him out.

#10 Ayteem (6)

Ayteem only just missed out on the field for the Avondale Guineas and instead ran last weekend over 2200m in a BM75 where he came second. He will line up from barrier 6 in this race and will push forward as he did last start, hopefully creating some speed at the front. My query is, will he be able to back up following a tough race, and will he be good enough to match it with this company. This will be his 4th run over 2000m so you’d hope he’d be hard fit and not beginning to regress as a result. He’s a horse that’s used to having a few weeks between runs, which always raises concerns on the quick back up. This horse adds another element of speed that we didn’t see in the Avondale Guineas, which personally excites me. Does the race he is coming from have more depth than this? No, I don’t think so. Therefore, I don’t think that he will be featuring in the finish despite the fact that he will make his own luck up on speed.

#11 Golden Century (8)

Golden Century will line up in gate 8 with Ryan Elliot aboard in the New Zealand Derby. He finished in 8th position in the Avondale guineas where he settled midfield. From re-watching the replay from the Avondale guineas, he was checked along the straight by oceana dream, so he was unable to get out into full stride. He has the miles in the legs and I think he’ll find a similar position to sit in this race. It will be interesting to see if he has any improvement left in him. This is another horse that turned the tables on Mustang Morgan last start in the Avondale Guineas. He settled in a great position last start but approaching the corner, he just wanted to lay in. I would’ve thought that they might’ve tinkered with some gear but it looks like they haven’t which is interesting. I’m going to say that given the laying in, he does have improvement to come and I can see him featuring in the finish.

#12 Ridefromtheashes (11)

Another horse that went forward in the Avondale Guineas. However, he was a touch keen early, which caused him to feel the pinch late. I thought he did well to hit the line as well as he did. Ridefromtheashes will jump from barrier 11 and, for Willy’s sake, will hopefully try to lead. The tempo was generous to his finishing position in the Avondale Guineas. Despite that, he was beaten by under 2 lengths and was 1600 to 2100 on that occasion. His form before that stacks up well with a 5th to Savaglee, who ran 2nd in the G1 Australian Guineas. He will be peaking for this race, but I’m just questioning the ability to run out a strong 2400m with a quicker tempo.

#13 Casemiro (13)

Casemiro struggled in the Waikato Guineas, so he won’t pose a threat. He runs here 30 days fresh. Having a look at that Waikato Guineas, it seems that they went quite quick as no horse broke 35 seconds for the last 600m, which is interesting. That race tempo probably didn’t suit Casemiro, who sat in the first 4 throughout the run. If it were to be a walking edition of the NZ Derby, then I could make a case but otherwise I can’t. 3 lengths off Golden Century and a further 11 lengths from Tuxedo means he would have to improve out of sight to turn the tables on them

#14 Don Pedro (15)

Gate 15 , Sam Spratt riding, this galloper comes from a completely different form line to any other horse in this race. He won his maiden last start over 2050m on Feb 6th and then had a trial on Feb 25th as a fitness boost. He will go to the back from barrier 15. He travelled 4 wide around the field in his last start. It was an impressive win but I doubt he is in this class. He’s now had two goes at 2000m, but goes from a Maiden to a Group 1, which is a massive question mark but equally shows a stable’s opinion. Too unknown for me to have him in selections.

#15 Grey Area (4)

W
Grey area jumps from gate 4 and Warren Kennedy is in the saddle. He will roll forward as he did last start, and now gets the addition of the blinkers to tighten him up. He began to tire at the start of the straight in a 2100m, therefore I doubt he will stay the 2400m, and see that as a big “grey area.”

#16 Interplanetary (5)

Shaun and Emma’s other horse in the race, who comes again from the Avondale Guineas, where he struggled from close to the rear of the field. Happy enough to be forgiving of the Avondale Guineas, given that he settled in a disadvantaged position, however, off his previous start, I couldn’t have him purely based on the class.