MyRacehorse

1. Another Prophet (4) - Ethan Brown

Why she can?
- Another Prophet is a Group 1 winner who was given a bit of a pipe opener first up in the Group 3 Manfred. She is probably a bit further along in her prep than some key rivals here. She has a win over Aeliana who has beaten a few others in this field, which bodes well for this race. She draws for an economical run and has run well at Flemington previously. The horse that won her last race is favourite in a different race on the card, so the market clearly thinks she’s good.
Why she can’t?
- I question her ability at 1400m. I think she hit’s peak at 1600m so she may need this run to get to a mile 3rd up. I also question if the quality of the field in the Manfred (minus Royal Insignia) is good enough form for this, the other horses that beat her home last start I couldn’t have in this field.

Why she can?
- Her form in NZ is top class with a win two starts ago over Alabama Lass in a Group 1 over 1600m. She wasn’t beaten far last start (2.3L) in late January over 1200m when having a tough run in transit (was worse than midfield and wide throughout the event). She was definitely hitting the line strongly and will relish the rise in trip. That race was run on a pretty soft track and she goes better on dry tracks based on her proven form.
Why she can’t?
- She is probably a better horse over a mile, so 1400m may still be too sharp for her. She also gets the equicast for the first time, which is a gear change that usually scares me.

Why she can?
- She had a very good prep last prep, culminating in a very competitive Group 1 Oaks run. Adding to that, she has run well at Flemington previously. She trialled well behind Here To Shock, who won a subsequent Group 1 in New Zealand last weekend, albeit trial form.
Why she can’t?
- She’s first up off a tough Spring campaign and has only had the one trial. Therefore, she may find the 1400m too sharp first up. Additionally, a number of her races last preparation were run at very slow tempo’s, which evidently suited her. I’m not sure that she will get the same tempo on Saturday.

Why she can?
- Her form around her last prep has stacked up in multiple Group 1 races, including horses such as Henlein and Jenni’s Meadow. 1400m first up is a tick off 3 trials, especially given how strong her last trial was. She absolutely loves Flemington and gets an economical map from the draw.
Why she can’t?
- It’s been 224 days since her last run. She may need this run under her belt before we see her best performances. Her progression since her last campaign is unknown as we haven’t seen it in races just yet following her 3yo spring season.

Why she can?
- She’s a lightly raced horse who looks very progressive. She bolted in last start, albeit in easier grade, but she certainly looked a class above. The Begg stable are absolutely flying at the moment and Craig Williams jumps off Captured By Love to ride Cilacap, which is a strong jockey booking.
Why she can’t?
- I question whether she has the class to win in such a competitive field. Also, her trials this time have been okay without looking amazing. In terms of the race map, the barrier is a bit sticky for a filly that likes to be in the first half of the field. If she is 3 wide with no cover, she won’t win in this field.

Why she can?
- She has similar formlines to favoured runner Captured By Love. She was 2nd to Savaglee and 1.3 lengths behind Alabama Lass over 1400, which reads well for a listed fillies race. She comes here 3rd up and very close to peak, whereas others aren’t as far along in their respective preparation.
Why she can’t?
- Barrier 11 hurts. I see her either dropping back in the field or getting stuck in a wide line. Whilst the form is similar to Captured By Love, last time they met she was beaten almost 8 lengths, and I question her ability to turn the tables on her on Saturday.

Why she can?
- She found the line well last start over 1200m. She wasn’t far off Bjorn Baker’s Bonita Queen, who is a stakes class horse and is in the market in a race in Sydney on Saturday. She heads to this 4th up and this would be a suitable Grand Final for a horse of this quality.
Why she can’t?
- I don’t think she has the same ability as a few of these. Her last win was in a BM72 and the form hasn’t jumped off the page. She would need a career peak to beat these fillies.

Why she can?
- She had a hard luck story not beating Aeliana over 1400m at Randwick in October. She was badly held up and lost all momentum at a key stage in that race. Her Flemington run was a forgive run, given she settled worse than midfield and they went 11 lengths slower than benchmark. She now gets James McDonald to ride and is drawn perfectly to receive every possible chance. Her 2nd trial this preparation was very good coming from the rear of the field and closing off well.
Why she can’t?
- Her form on good tracks is slightly suspect. She’s had 3 starts for just the 1 placing. SHe always looks strong in races without actually winning. Her last win was in June 2024 as a 2 year old.

Why she can?
- She was 2nd to Point and Shoot last start who has since bolted in again and looks like a genuine Group 1 horse. Also, her form around Silmarillion is decent form as a 2 year old. She’s now 3rd up and should be getting close to a peak performance.
Why she can’t?
- Probably doesn’t have the runs on the board just yet to suggest that she will be winning here. Her ratings don’t compare to other horses within the field. A small form query I have is that she’s never run anti-clockwise, which can always be an unknown.

Why she can?
- She has done nothing wrong winning her first two career starts in great fashion. Her jump out since her last start was good behind Joyful Fortune, who ran in an Everest back in the day. She is a lightly raced filly with plenty of upside and the stable wouldn’t place her here if they didn’t think she could run well.
Why she can’t?
- She hasn’t beaten the fields she’s raced in by big margins (0.75 lengths and 1 length wins). She was last seen in a BM58, and if other horses were in that same field, I would suggest that they would be winning by a bigger margin.

Why she can?
- She has form around good Group 1 horses such as Treasurethe Moment. If you forgive her last start when she was wide and race tempo wasn’t ridden to suit, you could hope she provides a blowout chance.
Why she can’t?
- She doesn’t have the class of the other runners in the field and probably wants a little further. She has a lack of market support which suggests that she isn’t in the same league as other horses here.

Why she can?
- She won her maiden in decent time last start (1.2 lengths above standard). 1st and 2nd put a good gap on the rest of the field which is always a sign of a progressive horse in a maiden. She also gets a leading jockey on in Jamie Melham, who is very good at Flemington.
Why she can’t?
- She would need to produce a career peak figure to compete with the class runners in the field. She draws the outside barrier so luck in running is paramount.

In a wide open race I think that there are definitely 4-5 chances. I feel that Another Prophet, Captured By Love, Sneaky Sunrise and Good Sort are the main chances, with Kitty Flash posing some value in the field. Cilacap represents the “unders” in the current market, I couldn’t have a price below $10 for her based on her form.
Suggested Trifecta (Boxed): 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8